Museveni’s missing Campaign - Andrew Mwenda

Museveni’s missing campaign

By Andrew M. Mwenda

There is a wave of excitement in favour of Bobi Wine and his bid for the presidency. The recent riots and their spread across the country only provide a glimpse into the popular interest in him. Anyone who has seen the traffic on social media would know his appeal. To underestimate his potential would therefore be to bury one’s head in the sand. Yet NRM seems impervious to these realities.

Many factors favour Bobi Wine. He has been a popular musician, so he has name recognition and a strong brand. He is also fresh because he is not been in politics before. He is young, and our country has one of the youngest populations in the world. He is Muganda, Uganda’s largest tribe. He is a Catholic, our country’s largest religion. Then he has his roots in the ghetto where the poor and dispossessed in urban areas live; so they identify with him.

Meanwhile, our president is old and makes little effort to make himself appealing to the young. He is strong on public policy and affable but often looks exhausted. I wonder why he stages his televised campaign events in such a state. He gives a litany of his achievements but has failed to articulate any reason why people should give him yet another mandate to govern for another five years.

Now while Bobi Wine’s campaign has passion and enthusiasm, Museveni’s team also looks tired, bored and disinterested in what he is saying but in awe of him. They seem incapable of grasping the structural transformation that this government has engendered. So their campaign strategies are out of step with the new Uganda that Museveni has created. Given the rancour of Bobi Wine supporters, a sophisticated Museveni campaign can expose the dangers of this group.

The biggest structural transformation in our country has been in social technology. Social media is now the biggest influence on this campaign. Yet the Museveni campaign team, if there is any such thing, has no viable social media strategy, save for poorly designed and ineffective isolated, not coordinated, efforts. The paradox is that if Bobi Wine performs very well in this election, it will be more because of Museveni’s achievements than his failures.

According to the Uganda Communications Commission by October 31st 2020, there were 20m Internet subscribers in Uganda, up from 15m as of December 31st, 2019, and up from 4.7m as of December 31, 2015. Internet traffic between July and October averaged 19m. Part of this growth is global; a result of declining costs of both smart phones and Internet access, but government policy has made it possible.

Then the demographics: we have a population of about 43m people. Of these, only 45% are 18 years plus. Bobi Wine is 38 years old while Museveni is 76. The people aged between 18 and 40 years constitute 80% of the adult/voting population. The people aged 75 years and above are 1.7% of voters. The people aged 50 years plus, the constituency most likely to appreciate where Museveni has bought this country from, are only 13% of the voters. Many young Ugandans not appreciate our gains and take them for granted.

Bobi Wine is enjoying an 85% advantage on social media, Museveni only 12%. Yet the spread of social media is evidence of the achievements of the Museveni administration. Millions of young Ugandans today are connected on social media via smart phones. This means they have sufficient disposable income to by smart phones and divert money from food and other basic needs to data and OTT. It also means they are educated to be able to read and write, thanks to UPE and USE, Museveni’s signature achievements.

These factors have made young Ugandans highly aspirational. Yet the rate of growth in their aspirations is (and can only be) faster than the rate of growth in opportunities. The mismatch between aspirations and opportunities is what is driving social frustration reflected in hostility to government. This is the new challenge of Museveni’s developmental state. It has produced a social group that wants to see the president go, a contradiction Karl Marx identified with capitalism.

Marx argued that for the bourgeoisie to accomplish its project of accumulation, it has (inevitably) to produce a social class, the embittered proletariat, whose interests are at odds with the interests of capital. This class, Marx predicted, would raise and expropriate the owners of capital. He called this the gravedigger problem. The same risk faces Museveni’s developmental state; it has cultivated its own gravediggers – the embittered urban and semi-urban youths. Will they raise and overthrow the state that has produced them?

Marx’s embittered proletariat did not overthrow capitalism in the West. On the contrary, communism succeeded in the least industrialised part of Europe – Russia. The failure in Marx’s prediction was that he failed to anticipate the internal self-correcting mechanisms in capitalism, especially its political arm, liberal democracy. Expanding democratic participation led to reforms that increased the social and economic benefits flowing to labour, thereby undermining the need for violent change. Reform became the enemy of revolution.

Museveni needs to learn from Western Europe and adapt his political methods to the new realities. He needs to put in place a smart social media strategy. He needs to find a way to connect with the young. He doesn’t need to act young; he needs to act like a sage, a cool grandpa. I meet many young people, especially young pretty girls, who really find Museveni cool and prefer him to Bobi Wine. He just needs to reach out to many of them. Finally he needs to provide a reason why at his advanced age, and having ruled this country for the last 35 years, he needs another mandate for five years.

Museveni’s campaign (or the sad imitation of a campaign) looks out of place. It is not cool to be seen to defend Museveni. It is cool to be seen with Bobi Wine. This can change and Museveni needs to expand his reach to the young. He needs to create an emotional connection with them. He can show them that he has brought the ship Uganda from far, through turbulent waters. But there are small speedboats all over the place promising shortcuts at the risk of accidents.

“I am here asking you to trust me as an experienced captain,” he can tell them, “I hear your voices and feel your anxieties. Trust my experience at navigation, even though you worry about my age. Here are the plans I have for you and your future which my opponents don’t have.” For now, the president and his team need more police than votes to manage the campaign, which is really sad.

A DICTATOR TRAPPED IN WEB OF HIS OWN TYRANNY.

[Speaking Truth To Power]

A DICTATOR TRAPPED IN WEB OF HIS OWN TYRANNY.

The problem with Uganda’s dictator Yoweri Museveni is that he’s backed himself in a tight corner. He’s got no exit strategy except to remain in power until he dies.

Barring that, Museveni would prefer a fictitious military “coup” whereby a “new” regime would protect him, his family, and their financial and commercial interests. In reality it would be a government where Museveni would continue pulling the strings from the background while remaining chairman of his ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party.

He may be concerned that this maneuver may not be sufficient. Jose Eduardo dos Santos tried it in Angola. In 2017 his protege Joao Lourenco succeeded him after he’d held power for 38 years. Dos Santos remained chairman of the ruling party. Today, he’s living in exile while Angola is working to recover the more than $1 billion accrued by his daughter Isabella dos Santos.

Of course Museveni doesn’t want to go into exile. He cannot afford to lose an election to a candidate like Robert Kyagulanyi, a.k.a. Bobi Wine, who represents the new Uganda, the youth. They comprise the overwhelming 80% of the nation’s population. They will surely vote for Bobi Wine.

Museveni fears that a post-Museveni government not engineered and controlled by Museveni would not secure and protect his interests. To Museveni, the interests of Museveni and the Museveni family are paramount. They are more important than the interests and well-being of Uganda. The late Congolese dictator Mobutu liked saying, “Je suit l’etat,” meaning “I am the state.” Likewise for Yoweri Museveni.

Museveni knows that a military regime would not endure in Uganda. The regime would be condemned by the African Union (AU), the United States, and the EU. Might a military regime be able to buy itself breathing room of several months during which it can claim it’s on a mission to restore order before returning power to civilians?

In Mali, the military seized power from an elected president Ibrahim Boubacar Keita in August 2020. The regime was roundly condemned by the AU and international community. The regime arranged a managed “consultation” with civil society. The regime created a caretaker administration with a “civilian”—former defense minister Bah Ndaw—as president. The apparent coup master Col. Assimi Goita became vice president. In other words, the military maintains power during the interim period.

Mali’s coup and aftermath emulates the Sudan’s. There, Omar Hassan Bashir was deposed by the military in 2019, after 30 years in power. This followed a popular uprising. The army entered into an interim administration—a compact with civilians, leading toward promised elections. Today Bashir is in prison facing trial on charges related to his role in the 1989 coup that brought him to power. The ICC also wants him at the Hague; the court issued a warrant for his arrest in 2009 in connection to his alleged role in crimes against humanity carried out against people in Sudan’s Darfur region.

In both Sudan and Mali there had been sustained protests for several months. The coups likely intercepted popular revolutions. In Mali, France may have encouraged the takeover. The Gulf states that finance Sudan’s government may have promoted Bashir’s exit.

In Uganda, after 34 years in power, Museveni may have outlived his usefulness to the U.S. and U.K., the two primary sponsors of his regime.

Faced with the prospects of losing in a landslide to Bobi Wine, Museveni might attempt to engineer his own Mali, or Sudan exit. He may be pondering whether to trigger a friendly “coup” before or after Uganda’s Jan. 14 presidential election.

How might Museveni engineer a pre-election coup? He could order a massacre. After he arrested leading presidential candidate Bobi Wine, leader of the National Unity Platform (NUP), on Nov. 18, his supporters protested. In the days and weeks that followed Museveni’s armed forces killed a reported 85 people. Museveni could order another such massacre before Jan. 14—with more casualties. He could then use the incident as a cover for a friendly coup.

He could similarly launch the coup after the election. Museveni would certainly have more opportunities and bogus excuses for such a takeover.

Judging by the size of the turnout at Bobi Wine’s campaign events relative to the number of people bussed in, or coming voluntarily, to Museveni’s own events, the dictator is headed for a landslide defeat. Bobi Wine is 38 years old, compared to Museveni who is at least 76 by his own account--possibly older. Bobi Wine is of the generation of millions of impoverished Ugandan youth. He speaks and sings in their language. They see in him the possibilities of a better today and tomorrow. They will vote for him.

Should Museveni ignore the outcome of the election, and have his hand-picked election commission declare himself “winner”—as he did after challenger Dr. Kizza Besigye defeated him in the last three elections—the youth will take to the streets. Museveni could then order massacres. Should street protests continue, Museveni could then trigger the coup and the army would declare a state of emergency and deploy on the streets.

Predictably the AU, U.S., and EU would condemn the takeover. The army could then announce a caretaker administration led by a “civilian.” With Museveni pulling strings in the background, the military could nominate a “civilian” like Henry Tumukunde as interim president. Tumukunde is a regime insider who’s related to Museveni’s wife Janet, who doubles as minister of education. Tumukunde was Museveni’s minister of national security until 2016.

Other possible “civilians” the military could propose includes Museveni’s own son, Gen. Muhoozi Kaenerugaba. He is presidential advisor to his father and controls at least three military services, including the Special Forces Command. He could become vice chair of the interim government.

These—or some other variation—are possible temporary arrangements that Museveni may be contemplating. Both would be triggered by massacres to provide cover for takeovers. Yet, these manufactured coups don’t address the existential challenges facing Uganda: how to remove Museveni from power; how to empower the youth; and how to institute government that is anchored on Uganda’s institutions—the executive, the courts, the legislature—rather than on one man, Yoweri Museveni.

Enter Bobi Wine. How could he be denied power after he’s secured landslide victory? Museveni may be thinking he could place Bobi Wine under house arrest or exile him to some remote part of Uganda such as Karamoja while soldiers seize the streets. Of course there is a chance the youth might still return to the streets and drive him out of power and from Uganda. Nowadays no dictator can massacre with impunity and hope that he will not account for it one day. Hissen Habre of Chad, Charles Taylor of Liberia, and Sudan’s Bashir learned the hard way. Museveni is not blind to the facts.

Even if the military secures the streets then what next? A caretaker government fronted by Tumukunde, a retired general —or some other Museveni acolyte—for 24 months? Then some sham elections to follow? An election where the only competing parties are the Democratic Party (DP), the compromised Uganda People’s Congress (UPC), and his own NRM?

A sham election—that excludes NUP, FDC, and ANT—can only lead to a sham government. Musevenism would continue—corruption, embezzlement, torture, massacres, economic retrogression, and collapse of already crumbling state institutions. After 34 years, Ugandans and the outside world wouldn’t buy it.

If Bobi Wine and NUP contested again he would win by a wider margin. Museveni would likely preclude Bobi Wine from contesting in another election by having him convicted of one of the bogus criminal charges he’s now facing. He’s likely reluctant to harm Bobi Wine because that would likely spark a popular uprising and revolution, spelling the end for him.

So what is to be done?

A government that reflects the will of the vast majority of voters is the only solution. If Bobi Wine’s NUP wins in a landslide he must be allowed to form a government. He has shown remarkable maturity and moderation. He has been brutalized—including the infamous torture incident in Arua in August 2018—and arrested multiple times, as have been his supporters; many have been killed. Yet, he has urged his supporters to refrain from revenge violence and to seize power by voting on Jan. 14.

Judging by the maturity he’s displayed, Bobi Wine would likely form an inclusive, broad-based government of national recovery. He could draw talented individuals from FDC, ANT, DP, and some non-compromised members of UPC, to join NUP in government. He may even be able to find some NRM members without blood in their hands, to play a role.

Museveni seized power with the sword and has governed by the sword. He reasonably suspects that many people who lost relatives during his tyranny will seek revenge. Even a U.S. senator has privately said Museveni holds on to power because that’s the only way he can protect himself, his family, and ill-gotten riches.

This is a matter that has to be addressed, and which will be the subject of future commentary. Yet the fate of one man and his family can no longer hold hostage a nation of over 45 million.

NUP Presidential candidate, Kyagulanyi (Bobi Wine) is scheduled to address the nation tonight at 7:45pm

NUP Presidential candidate, Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu (Bobi Wine) is scheduled to address the nation tonight at 7:45pm, about the same time President Yoweri Museveni's address is scheduled.

Bobi Wine says his address is about the state of his campaign, and other matters of national importance. The address will be relayed live on Facebook and other social media channels. #UgandaDecides2021

RPC Nkore Paul has Arrested NUP's Deputy President Dr. Zedriga and put in a small crowded cell with Men

In Oyam, after a massive reception, the RPC of this region, one Nkore Paul could not stomach it. He arrested my Deputy President Dr. Lina Zedriga Waru and several other comrades and detained them at Lolo police station. They are all detained in a small crowded cell. Moreover she is detained in the same cell with men.

Earlier, the officer in charge of Oyam police station, one Tumwine used excessive force, beating up and arresting our people. I have told Mr. Nkore and Mr. Tumwine to act professionally and remember that they are not the first and they will not be the last. The system they are dying to protect in Lango Sub-region will soon be history and they will need to live in a Uganda which is free for all.

This is where Bobi Wine will get money to pay Men in Uniform

In FY 2017/18, state house was allocated Ugx 3,497,494,000 for just special meals and drinks.

Meaning, they were spending Ugx 291,458,000 a month and Ugx 9,582,000 a day on "special meals and drinks"

DPC Ahmed Hasunira to fire tear gas to block FDC presidential candidate Patrick Amuriat Oboi from accessing Jinja City Centre.

The police in Jinja have fired teargas to block FDC presidential candidate Patrick Amuriat Oboi from accessing Jinja City Centre.

The first-time presidential candidate defiantly made a stopover in Jinja during his journey to Soroti where he hopes to start his campaigns something that prompted police led by DPC Ahmed Hasunira to fire tear gas to disperse his supporters.

#NBSUpdates #UgVotes2021

Bobi Wine hits back hard with the strongest Debris

His excellency Bobi Wine hits back hard with the strongest Debris

Police have blocked FDC presidential candidate Patrick Amuriat from holding a campaign launch at Soroti Sports Ground

Police have blocked FDC presidential candidate Patrick Amuriat from holding a campaign launch at Soroti Sports Ground, arguing that the facility is located next to an isolation centre that has COVID-19 patients.

Details: https://bit.ly/2JMfjwN

THE PARTISAN SECURITY FORCES IN UGANDA

THE PARTISAN SECURITY FORCES IN UGANDA

Yesterday day over Etop Radio a local Station under Vision Group, General Elwelu Peter the famous man behind the Kasese killings was heard threatening the life of Our Regional Coordinator Hon. OKOIT GEORGE WILLIAM for the structure he and his team established a cross the region, it should be noted that these same General claims to be a 'Pastor', it's on this note that the world should be made to know that as young generation we deserve to be heard not Threatened.

Statement By Hon. OKOIT GEORGE WILLIAM

I stand for the truth against any form of threats.

ITESO LU APOLOK IDO ODIT AIJEN:

I can't imagine a person at the level of a General, can be reduced to discussing my personality, today over the air waves of Etop Radio which has lately proven to be a radio for channelling threats and propaganda, A General today honestly with hate spoke silly things concerning me, throwing threats and all sorts of statements.

But then I want to extend my invitation to the General that I will not be the first person for you to kill neither will I be the last but the question is what WOULD HAVE YOU GAINED?

I stay in Nakatunya, Western Division when you have set your gun OR guns and you are sure of the date let me know, I save you the hustle by buying the Coffin early and also digging my Grave and another thing take my dead body to Katakwi, Amoru Abela.